Statistical Illusions

We’ve all read or heard about the jump in employment in February. However, that good news comes with a lot of caveats and questions.

Not to get bogged down in numbers, but here are the stats from NPR.org:

The Labor Department says the February jobless rate fell a tenth of a percent to 8.9 percent. The AP says that’s the lowest rate in nearly two years. Employers also hired at their fastest pace in a year.

The New York Times points out the separate jobs creation report reveals a huge jump in hiring: 192,000 jobs were created in February, compared to January, when 63,000 new jobs opened up. The higher growth in (February) payroll employment was partly the result of a bounce back from unusually depressed hiring in January, when snowstorms shuttered offices and factories around the country.

In another article, NPR points out that the numbers might be incorrect:

The unemployment rate is based on the Labor Department’s monthly Current Population Survey, which is a questionnaire sent to about 60,000 households. That translates into about 110,000 individuals, and is a far bigger survey than any conventional public opinion poll.

But it still has a substantial margin of error—higher than the government’s survey of employers, which is the source for statistics about jobs gained or lost every month.

Maybe it’s my outta-work-for-more-than-a-year cynicism, but I’m not buying this supposed “good” news.

Yes, there are a few bright spots: manufacturers added 33,000 jobs in February. America is always at its best when it makes things. Temporary hiring is also up, which is a precursor to permanent jobs. We hope.

So, what does this indicate for the economy as a whole? Will more industries start hiring? In my profession, does this mean publishers and media companies will see a spike in ad sales and hire more staffers? I don’t think so.

Companies have probably cut as much at they could cut in terms of staffing. But I doubt that means they are going on a hiring spree.

I’m not sure one month of good employment news means much. And is a near 9 percent unemployment rate anything to cheer about?

Will this give HR people even more reason not to hire us? They could think, “Well, job creation is up and these people still can’t get hired? Something must be wrong with them.”

Will the always-fickle media now forget the plight of the long-term unemployed with hiring supposedly on the upswing?

What happens if gas goes to up to $4 a gallon or more? Will that push this fragile recovery back into recession?

And what will happen to the unemployment rate when those thousands of state workers and teachers around the country get laid off?

Even if someone does find a job, it’s very likely he or she was hired at a lower salary. How does that help the economy?

I’m sure there are many persons who have been jobless for so long that they have given up hope of ever finding employment, which may be artificially lowering the unemployment rate.

Many economists have said it will take years to recoup the job losses piled up in this recession. We need more than one month of “good” job numbers.

For the millions of us who are unemployed, until we are actually hired for a job, these numbers are meaningless. Just a lot of statistical illusions.

Sloppy Seconds

Yesterday, I received a most unusual rejection email.

It went like this:

“Thank you so much for your terrific edit test, but we have decided to go with another candidate at this time.

It was a really tough call—I wish I could hire two editors! However, if things don’t work out as we have planned (and they sometimes don’t with freelance situations), I do hope you’d still consider the position.

I would like to keep the lines of communication open, as you are wonderful writer, and your experience and expertise would be a wonderful asset to our organization.

It was a pleasure speaking with you—so please stay in touch.”

Hey, at least it wasn’t the standard “We’ve decided to go with another candidate and good luck in your job search” (dis)missive. I mean, are companies truly sincere when they wish us good luck in our job search? If they really cared, they would hire us, right?

And I really don’t get upset when I receive a rejection email. It’s just part of the job-seeking process.

But I digress.

This particular job was for steady freelance work that would have paid $2,000 a month. I could have kept doing my other freelance gig, but probably would have had to give up the unemployment benefits.

The job entailed writing and editing for the website of a regional lifestyle consumer magazine. I’ve been trying to break into consumer publications for a while, so this would have been a good opportunity.

However, the job required a lot of technical expertise that I do not have at this time. Although when I spoke to the editor, I made it clear I was willing to learn and she said there would be a training period. My guess is she went with somebody who already had those technical skills, which is understandable.

I feel two ways about the email. On one hand, she did compliment my writing. We unemployed people get so little feedback—good or bad—that any positive reinforcement is welcome. Considering unemployed job seekers are treated with either indifference or outright rudeness, her email was quite nice. She didn’t have to explain anything to me. Most companies don’t even bother getting back to applicants.

Yet, I came in second and still don’t have a job. And sometimes coming in second can be just as devastating as finishing last (see the New York Mets, 2006-08). It’s extremely frustrating.

And what if the person she hired works out? There’s no guarantee she would hire me. I’m just sloppy seconds.

And frankly, I think it’s a bit presumptuous of her to think I’d wait around for her to offer me the job, a job she has already rejected me for. If another viable, full-time opportunity comes along, of course I would take it…although that is looking increasingly unlikely every passing day.

Nevertheless, I wrote back to her, thanking her for her kind words. I also said I would be available for any freelance writing projects. What else could I say?

Tell me about your unusual rejection emails or letters.

Friends With [Unemployment] Benefits

Can unemployed people be friends with those who have a job? And can you still be friends with someone you used to work with after you’ve been laid off and that person still has a job at your former employer?

I’ve been thinking about that lately because I think a person who still works at the place I was discharged from wants to break off our friendship. Nothing concrete, just a vibe I’m getting.

This person was my second-in-command at the magazine I edited. I was her boss, but I always treated her with respect and never, ever raised my voice to her (which is more than I can say for the people who supervised me). We divided the work fairly between us, helped each out and got along quite well.

So much so that after I was laid off, she suggested we meet for lunch. She lives close to me, so it wasn’t a problem for us to get together on a Saturday afternoon for a meal. We’d meet about once a month.

Yet the last time we met, when she said goodbye, she didn’t suggest getting together again. I’ve sent her two emails, but she has not responded in nearly a month.

Now, I know I sound a bit overly sensitive, even paranoid. She is probably busy with other things in her life. But what would it take to respond to an email?

Yes, we would talk about my former place of employment. She’s even volunteered some juicy office gossip, which I’m careful not to spread.

Perhaps she got sick of hearing me whine about being laid off and my jobless state. Does she feel guilty about being kept on while I was kicked to the curb? She shouldn’t. Layoff decisions are nearly always capricious and illogical. And I’ve never suggested she should have been laid off instead of me. None of us should have lost our jobs. But she may have perceived it that way. I never meant to imply that and if I did, I sincerely apologize.

Worse, does she think my layoff was justified, that I was a bad worker/boss?

She probably thinks I should just shut up about it. But I didn’t talk about my feelings that much with her. Yet the impression I got was that she didn’t want to hear it and that she never fully understood why I felt so bad about getting laid off. People never think getting laid off is a big deal...until it happens to them. However, if she thought about it, what happened to me, and so many people I worked with at that wretched place, could conceivably be her fate. I’m a reminder that no job is secure, and she may not want to face that fact.

Maybe I was wrong to think we could continue a friendship after I was laid off. I sometimes think it’s better if a whole company or department gets the boot. That way, there’s a sense of camaraderie among the laid-off workers. You don’t feel singled out. Everybody got the ax, so there was no possibility of favoritism.

When some are laid off and others are kept, well, it leads to an inequality and the inevitable “Why me?” question that can corrode even the best of office friendships.

So, I wish her well. I really don’t know how she feels, so I can’t make assumptions. If she wants to see me, she can get in touch with me. If not, so be it. I’m not reaching out again. Getting professional rejection is quite enough, thank you very much; no need to court personal snubs.

Perhaps it’s better this way. In a sense, keeping in touch with her kept me emotionally tethered to that horrid place. I need to break all connections with what was an extremely painful experience in my life and move on.

I also think I’m feeling slighted by her lack of communication because my list of friends has dwindled. Both my sisters live out of state. Another friend moved West a year ago. I have two other close friends that live nearby, but one is always busy and the other has been homebound by a recent back surgery. So losing her friendship is a bit upsetting to me.

I further wonder if unemployed and employed people can ever be friends. Is the gulf between us too wide? I hear a lot of employed people tell me how busy they are, implying that jobless people are lazy, that we whine too much. (Or am I being defensive?) Hey, it’s not whining if you have something to whine about, and losing a job falls into that category.

My answer to that is simple and twofold: We would surely help you out if your boss, or any company, would hire us. We want to work as much as they want the assistance. After all, we weren’t the morons-in-charge who thought slashing jobs was a good idea.

Employed people should also remember that none of us left our jobs voluntarily. We were laid off. We did not choose to be unemployed. Yeah, we love being broke and treated like lepers by the rest of society.

And just for the record: I have never asked anyone for money. I have too much respect for my friends—and myself—to ever do that. I'm not a freeloader.

Meanwhile, the people I used to work with got raises and Christmas bonuses.

Now, apparently, those of us who made those things at least partially possible because our salaries were eliminated don’t even rate their friendship.

But tell me. How do your employed friends treat you?

Talk About a Revolution

We’ve all been transfixed by the protests in the Middle East. Much has been said about the role social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter played in getting the crowds together for the demonstrations.

But why are they protesting? From what I’ve read, the young people in Egypt, Yemen and Libya want the same things a lot of their counterparts in the U.S. want: A job and the chance for a better life.

According to one Op-Ed piece I read recently, the unemployment rate for youth in this country is 48.9%. That means half of the young people in this country cannot find a job.

That’s disturbing on so many levels. One, how can these young people ever buy a home, rent an apartment or even buy a car without a job? And let’s not forget that many college graduates are burdened with hefty amounts of student loan debt.

This is not a good harbinger for economic prosperity in this country.

President Obama has implored business leaders to hire more workers, but so far, those words have fallen on deaf ears. Corporate leaders respond they are too “uncertain” about the economy. I think they are waiting for an even more friendly Congress to wipe out as many taxes as they can.

It must be equally frustrating for young people to stagnate at such a young age, a time when they should be making their mark in the world, when they are surrounded by so many images of success by people barely out of puberty. Justin Bieber is a superstar at age 16! Mark Zuckerberg a billionaire before age 30! And please don’t get me started on Ke$ha.

At least when I graduated from college it was expected that it would take some time before I climbed up the ladder of my profession…and it did. Now, young people have to be at the top of their field no later than their 21st birthday. That’s a heavy burden to put on someone just out of college.

Companies often say applicants don’t have the exact skills they are looking for. Well, you could train someone who is bright and otherwise qualified. But managers are lazy and they don’t want to train incoming employees. And it’s going to take time for schools and colleges to put in the necessary curriculum to educate young people in those new skills. There is going to be a lag. In the meantime, companies must teach new hires if they want their firms to grow and prosper.

Since I’m at the other end of the spectrum—I won’t give my age but let’s say I’m between Lady Gaga and Betty White—I have to say that this employment market has not been kind to older workers either. Many have been let go because of their supposed high salaries and employers view them as out of touch with today’s technology. That’s a bit unfair. I’m certainly willing to take a cut in a pay and learn new skills, if only someone would give me the chance.

It’s also been said that one way to reduce the national deficit is to cut entitlement programs like Social Security. But neither political party seems willing to do that. There’s a reason why it’s called the third rail of politics.

One suggestion has been to push up the retirement age. I’m all for that. Health permitting, I’d love to work well beyond retirement age. Provided, of course, I have a job. Raising the retirement age will only help cut the budget deficit if companies hire workers—of all ages.

So you see, young and old are not that far apart on this issue. Maybe we should get together and march on Washington, D.C. for jobs.

Young people can push our wheelchairs and in return, we’ll co-sign your car loans. A deal?

What Happened to the Middle Class?

I read two interesting articles recently.

First the good news: The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission is finally investigating employers who deliberately exclude unemployed persons from hiring decisions. Here it is: http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110217/ts_yblog_thelookout/help-wanted-jobless-need-not-apply

I say it’s about time the government looked into this odious and illegal practice.

Now, the not-so-good news: The middle class in the United States is falling further and further behind economically while the rich get richer. http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/16/news/economy/middle_class/. So much for the “trickle down” theory.

There are many reasons for this. First is the decline of unions. Without strong unions, workers have fewer shields against abuse by employers and wages have stagnated as a result. And how many companies offer pensions these days?

I also contend that the absence of unions is also an issue when it comes to layoffs. Unions offered a measure of protection against employers summarily dismissing workers without reason or warning. Favoritism was less of a factor. Now, corporate overlords just cut anyone they want in order to boost profits, protect their own power bases and save their handpicked lapdogs. Workers have little redress.

In this recession, very few CEOs lost their jobs. It was the middle-level workers and below who got canned. It will take years for them to recover lost wages. Not wonder so many homes have gone into foreclosure.

We can debate the usefulness of unions. Did they get too greedy? But without them, the middle class has suffered.

I'm not going on a socialist rant here. But it seems to me that the best promise of capitalism—that anyone who works hard can achieve the good life—is giving way to a rigid class structure of rich getting richer and middle class and below getting poorer. The opportunity to move up the economic ladder is dwindling.

Global competition also plays a part. Corporations now seek to send manufacturing jobs offshore at cheaper wages, thereby cutting off what was once a path to middle class prosperity for many with only a high school education.

Now, only the most highly trained and skilled can get good paying jobs in finance and technology. So it’s not enough to simply go to college, you have to go to the right college and have the right degree. And that takes a lot of money, which ensures the rich will stay that way.

This situation is sure to cause tension between the rich and the middle class. Guess who will win?

Playing Defense

With the Super Bowl over, football season is now officially behind us. Yet the unemployed are still playing defense.

Here’s what I mean: A while back I had a conversation with a friend of mine. Because of the bad weather we’ve been having in the Northeast, she was unable to travel to Canada to visit her father during Christmas week. (She’s a teacher and always has that week off.)

Stuck at home alone, she said she was going stir crazy. (Her live-in boyfriend had luckily escaped to Florida to visit his mother.)

Then she said something that got me upset: “I don’t know how you do it all the time.”

Ah, the universal misconception about unemployed people: that we sit at home and do nothing all day. She said this, even though she knows I go on interviews and do freelance assignments. I’ve even starting doing volunteer work.

Referring to that statement, I asked if she thought I was doing anything wrong.

Oh, no, she said. She was just making an observation.

Then she explained that I was probably feeling a bit defensive, or “going to a place of defensiveness” as she put it. (Yes, she’s has had a lot of therapy, which gave her the insight into my feelings.)

Likewise, my sister calls me nearly everyday, and asks (in that tone only an older sister speaks): “So, did you do anything today?” Is she trying to make me feel bad about my situation? Is she implying I’m not doing anything to improve my jobless lot in life? Like my friend, she knows I’ve been searching and doing freelance work. She even asked me once if I were looking for a job! Why would she think I wasn’t?!

Or do they mean nothing by what they are saying. Is my own guilt and embarrassment about being unemployed for more than a year making me defensive?

But should unemployed people who’ve lost their jobs through no fault of their own be defensive about their situation? Do we have to explain ourselves to anyone? Do they need to know the number of job applications we’ve submitted? How many interviews we’ve gone on? How many rejection emails have come to our email box?

I’m sure most people who inquire about my job search are not making a judgment about my situation; they only want to know what’s going on in my life. (Not much!)

Still, it’s hard not to feel a bit ashamed about not having a job for so long. Are they thinking, “Well, there must be something wrong with her if she can’t get a job”?

Considering the low regard jobless people are held in these days, it’s hard not to get, well, defensive. It’s easier to blame the victim of a layoff than the poor decisions of management that led to the layoff. We are put in a position of essentially defending an action we had no part of instigating. Hey, if you want to know why I’m out of work, ask the bosses who told me to pack up my desk and leave because the company was doing poorly. All the sales people who weren’t selling ads and were not bringing in revenue got to keep their jobs, yet we on the editorial side were kicked to the curb. Go figure.

Oh, yeah, I forgot, editorial is an expense item; therefore it’s the first to get cut. If you ask me, what the company needed were better salespeople. Alas, I had no say in the matter. Sorry for the digression into bitter territory.

So far, my tact has been to answer questions about my job status very matter-of-factly: “Well, I’m still looking for a job. I’ve been going on interviews and doing some freelance work.”

That works on many levels. It answers the question in a polite manner without getting into too much detail or emotion, and is in fact, the truth.

But am I obligated to answer what could be considered a rather intrusive question? Do I say nothing or tell them it’s none of their business? That would be a bit rude, but no more rude than the original question.

Guess I’ll just have to continue to play defense...and wait for spring training.

Money Matters

Ever since I got that email stating that I requested too high a salary, I’ve been thinking about what I should do. How much lower can I go?

Some companies demand that you submit your salary requirements. If not, you will not be considered for the job. At. All. So does that mean the company is looking for the lowest bidder, and ignoring an applicant’s experience?

When I received that rejection email stating my salary demand was too high, I did something I probably should not have done. I replied that my salary request was merely a starting point and we could have negotiated a mutually agreeable number.

I know, I know. It was stupid. But I’m getting increasingly frustrated with my search for gainful employment. I’m beginning to think it’s easier to get a kidney transplant than a job nowadays.

We job seekers have so little say in the matter; the employers hold all the cards. We rarely get the chance to respond, especially when we are rejected for a job. However, it should be pointed out that my email politely stated that I was willing to negotiate a salary. What’s wrong with that?

Therefore, I decided to once again cut my salary demands, which were originally less than what I was making when I worked full time. I also now state that my salary requirements are open to negotiation.

Yes, I can live on a lower salary, thanks to a reasonable rent and no car loan. But how much lower can I go? I’d like to move to a nicer place, but I guess that’s been put on hold indefinitely.

Statistics indicate that it takes years for a laid-off employee to regain his or her financial footing and make what he or she made before a job termination. No wonder, what with employers looking to hire the lower bidder for jobs.

And how can having more and more lower-paid workers and a disappearing middle class be good for our economy?